Cool Hand Dubya ?

"yeah well, sometimes nuthin' can be a pretty cool hand"

George W. Bush, like Richard Nixon before him, is reputed to be a top-notch Poker player. Let us hope W. is not familiar with the movie "Cool Hand Luke".

The spectacular demise of his pet domestic initiative, immigration reform, in which he had the support of a majority of Democrats and a substantial minority of Republicans, signaled to the chattering classes the absolute qualification of 'Lame Duck' had arrived.

But this is not so.

For there is still one issue on which he still has the stated support of large majorities of both parties, including most of the DEM Presidential candidates. Though mostly for a wide variety of crass, selfish reasons, a large majority of elected officials on Capitol Hill would not dare criticize, let alone call for Impeachment of W. for initiating an attack upon IRAN.

And he knows it.

Thus the lesson of last week's temporary commutation of Irving "Scooter" Libby's prison sentence will be viewed more ominously for world affairs than even for it's darkest impact upon the American justice system.

For with it, W. is sending a message to all who would challenge him, and his Iraq policies, not to go to far "down that road", because if necessary, he will order the attack, (or more likely continue to escalate his provocations) knowing full well that the political consequences can and will be spun to his, his party's, and his core-supporter's benefit.

At least that is how Beltway Democrats see it, because they know nothing of the larger world outside their own echo chamber. And coming from an Administration for whom political-math calculations are the first consideration when formulating policy, followed closely by opportunities to claim more unitary Presidential prerogatives, then graft (such things as the chances for success and consequences, intended and unintended, or contingencies in case of failure, are far down the list) it is easy to understand why Democrats are so skittish. They probably think the same way.

Intimidation is the only card Bush and Cheney (never forget Richard the Bruce) have left to play, but it is the one with which they hope could fill an inside straight. Whereas the opposition is banking on their card-counting skills and prematurely assuming that the next hand will be a winner before this round is concluded, because all they have now is a Red Queen and a Jack of Hearts. And inside the Beltway, Israel, Saudi Arabia, New York, and the M.I.C. are always FOUR ACES. And when their interests are aligned, as they were in 2003, lookout.

This is not to say W will order an attack upon Iran before his term is over, indeed quite the opposite is true. He cannot, and the rest of the world, outside the Beltway and especially the Middle East, knows it.

But akin to a crazed bank-robber who's been found out and surrounded, W knows that he has hostages (U.S. troops in Iraq) even though his pistol only has one bullet left in it. Therefore he must simultaneously convince his domestic political opponents (now in both parties) that:

1. He is sane enough to be negotiated with

2. He just might be crazy enough to start shooting

It is the only way he can buy enough time to run out the clock. After which he will spend the rest of his life carping upon every misstep (perceived and real) by every Democratic President. Especially when the day comes, and it will, that another large scale terrorist attack takes place upon US soil. W will bellow "I Told You So" at the top of his lungs, and an eighth, a quarter, or perhaps a third of the American public will shout along with him.

In the meantime, not to worry, W is not going to start a World War over Iran's nuclear ambitions. Why would he want to do even more of Al Quaeda's work for them, when there is far too much money to be made in future Patriot missile sales?

stephenhsmith
(updated 07.07.07)