Working under the assumption that what happens in GEO-Politics is what "they" want to happen, a powerful argument can be made that the Bush Administration's desire for the Middle East is "controlled chaos and instability".
Therefore, I believe that the Turkish Army will invade in force, portions of Northwest Iraq before the winter weather becomes prohibitive.
The markets will react, the US will holler, but it will be a unifying force for the Maliki government and after a week or so, having concluded their operations against Kurdish "terrorists", the Turks will yield to Maliki's call to cease and desist.
Such actions will bolster support for the secular military in an increasingly islamist electorate and also incur appreciation from European countries who are vital to Turkey's ambition to join the EU.
09 November 2007
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